Quantum dog mafia! Town wins!

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HPD
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Rank: Mentat
Location: The Mountain

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Night 2

Post by HPD » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:50 am

Day three starts, and geez, look at those numbers!

Code: Select all

          Good Evil Dead Lock
Player 1:  66%  33%   0%  41%
Player 2: 100%   0%   8%  75%
Player 3:   0% 100% 100% 100% (Pkdragon)
Player 4: 100%   0% 100% 100% (Dragonite)
Player 5: 100%   0% 100% 100% (QQQQQQQ7777777)
Player 6:  91%   8%  33%  91%
Player 7:  91%   8%  25%  75%
Player 8:  75%  25%   0%  50%
Player 9:  75%  25%  33%  66%
Universe Stability: 97%
Six players left (probably!), so four votes make a majority. We're at 97% universe stability, which means there are only twelve possible universes left! The math is getting less and less complicated the further we get into the game. And who knows, maybe a lynch today could cause total collapse! I am of course here to answer questions should you have them.
"So when I say the fudge shaman flies he goddamn well flies and that's that." - Narts
"My motto is that there are far too many women in the world to waste time with men." - thefalman
"It's just that I'm not really aware of how a common conversation goes." - Imano Ob, talking on MSN about talking on MSN
"As for FE8, that was IS' variant of Man Spam - Dudes with Swords edition." - Xenesis

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Narts

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by Narts » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:45 pm

Ok I've investigated Sven, Terr and Linkman. They all came up clean.

On the other hand Sven and Linkman have been the least helpful people around, having not published any of their inspection results. What's up with that.

All of Bonesy's and Deoxy's results have turned out to be right so as far as I see either of them could still be inspector.

Terragent inspected Dragonite as not evil which was correct and Sven as evil which is *undetermined*.

With this being the only lead I would be inclined to...

Lynch Sven

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Terragent
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by Terragent » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:51 pm

Okay Narts, at this point I have to respectfully disagree - I'm going to out myself as player 6 (8% chance of being evil). Last night I put a nightkill order on Sven, and the only player with an 8% dead chances is Sven, who's 100% good.

I suspect you, in turn, are player 7 (based on your earlier remarks about "several people trying to kill you" etc. This means that at this point you and Sven are the two I'm most willing to trust.

Sven notwithstanding, I think your logic is still pretty good, so I'll pick the other option from your deductions and Lynch Linkman.

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Narts

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by Narts » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:48 pm

I believe you.

Lynch Linkman.

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Linkman
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by Linkman » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:51 am

I don't think I'm mob.
"everytime I try to draw xen I end up drawing a kangaroo smoking a cigar while chainsawing a tree" - Deoxy
"I can't believe I'm the only person who voted Stallone. His appeal lies in watching is movies again and again just to hear what the hell he's talking about." - Kilteh

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scraggypunk
Rank: legendary cartographer
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by scraggypunk » Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:41 am

i got back narts is not evil

so i guess... who is player 1? that seems the most likely to be a bad dog?
wisdom
"the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread" - anatole france

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Sven

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by Sven » Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:46 pm

im player 2 yes

my inspections show terr as civilian and narts as mafia

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Narts

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by Narts » Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:55 pm

I'm mafia, yes, but only in 1 out of 12 universes.

With those odds it doesn't make sense for me to play evil.

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Sven

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by Sven » Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:59 pm

Lynch Linkman

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HPD
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by HPD » Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:08 pm

Linkman is one vote away from being lychee
"So when I say the fudge shaman flies he goddamn well flies and that's that." - Narts
"My motto is that there are far too many women in the world to waste time with men." - thefalman
"It's just that I'm not really aware of how a common conversation goes." - Imano Ob, talking on MSN about talking on MSN
"As for FE8, that was IS' variant of Man Spam - Dudes with Swords edition." - Xenesis

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Linkman
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by Linkman » Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:43 pm

I inspected Narts and Sven as not evil.

And I inspected Bonesy as evil.

I think I'm the seer.

Lynch Bonesy.
"everytime I try to draw xen I end up drawing a kangaroo smoking a cigar while chainsawing a tree" - Deoxy
"I can't believe I'm the only person who voted Stallone. His appeal lies in watching is movies again and again just to hear what the hell he's talking about." - Kilteh

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Bonesy
Rank: Dog Peddler
3DS Code: 0318 8318 0000
Location: Arid Zone

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by Bonesy » Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:05 am

lynch linkman

whoa there buddy

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HPD
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 3

Post by HPD » Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:02 am

Linkman was chosen to play the piñata of possibilities. But when the town took a swing at him, he collapsed into a Villager!

It it now Night 3. Once again, I'll PM you your possible actions.
"So when I say the fudge shaman flies he goddamn well flies and that's that." - Narts
"My motto is that there are far too many women in the world to waste time with men." - thefalman
"It's just that I'm not really aware of how a common conversation goes." - Imano Ob, talking on MSN about talking on MSN
"As for FE8, that was IS' variant of Man Spam - Dudes with Swords edition." - Xenesis

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Linkman
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Night 3

Post by Linkman » Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:42 am

Told ya.
"everytime I try to draw xen I end up drawing a kangaroo smoking a cigar while chainsawing a tree" - Deoxy
"I can't believe I'm the only person who voted Stallone. His appeal lies in watching is movies again and again just to hear what the hell he's talking about." - Kilteh

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HPD
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Night 3

Post by HPD » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:00 pm

Code: Select all

          Good Evil Dead Lock
Player 1:  25%  75%  25%  75%
Player 2: 100%   0%   0%  75%
Player 3:   0% 100% 100% 100% (Pkdragon)
Player 4: 100%   0% 100% 100% (Dragonite)
Player 5: 100%   0% 100% 100% (QQQQQQQ7777777)
Player 6: 100%   0%  25% 100%
Player 7: 100%   0%   0%  75%
Player 8:  75%  25%  75%  50%
Player 9: 100%   0% 100% 100% (Linkman)
Universe Stability: 99%
We're very close to the end now. Lynch town and it's over. Also I'm not really sure what happened tonight.
"So when I say the fudge shaman flies he goddamn well flies and that's that." - Narts
"My motto is that there are far too many women in the world to waste time with men." - thefalman
"It's just that I'm not really aware of how a common conversation goes." - Imano Ob, talking on MSN about talking on MSN
"As for FE8, that was IS' variant of Man Spam - Dudes with Swords edition." - Xenesis

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scraggypunk
Rank: legendary cartographer
Location: deoxy knight

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by scraggypunk » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:39 pm

well i inspected terr and bam, not evil

seems to match his claim of being player 6
wisdom
"the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread" - anatole france

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Narts

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Narts » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:53 pm

Inspected scraggy, not evil.

Lynch Bonesy

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Pkdragon
Rank: very chuuni

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Pkdragon » Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:14 pm

sucks to be player 8 lol
HPD wrote:You know the only thing on the agenda of the Squirtle Squad is pure, unadulterated chaos.

That, and watching Euros squirm.

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Sven

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Sven » Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:22 pm

Lynch Narts

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Terragent
Rank: Cussing Aussie
Location: Adelaide, Australia

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Terragent » Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:59 pm

At this point, town should be able to get an almost-guaranteed win if everyone roleclaims. Let's go through it:

Players 2, 6, and 7 are 100% guaranteed good. Player 1 is 75% evil and can, quite understandably, not want to claim. Player 8 is 25% evil, and this is all going to hinge on them, because the town's best shot is lynching player 8. Let's walk through it:

If player 8 is mafia, the town wins instantly. Sucks to be player 8, but look on the bright side, P8: there's only a 25% chance of that happening, and in the 75% of worlds where P1 is mafia (regardless of who gets lynched today), you're dead anyway.

If player 8 is a civ, player 1 is left as the only remaining mafia candidate, and their older nightkill is wasted on the already-lynched player 8. They get one more nightkill on 2/6/7, but then the remaining two townies can just vote for a lynch and win.

Conversely, if player 1 gets lynched, 75% of the time they're mafia and town wins, but if they turn out to be a civ, players 6 and 8 will die, which (coupled with the extra nightkill) means a guaranteed bad doggie win.

As such, I'm calling for every player to again claim, in this topic, their player number.

I am Number Six.

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Sven

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Sven » Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:03 am

NUMBER TWO

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Narts

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Narts » Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:08 am

Player 7.

I can't be evil, which may mean Sven is lying about his inspection results or him being 2, though HPD has admitted it could be a mistake he made (or an error with the software he's using)

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Terragent
Rank: Cussing Aussie
Location: Adelaide, Australia

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Terragent » Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:32 am

Come on player 8, I'm too lazy to figure out to embed so you'll just have to click here:

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Bonesy
Rank: Dog Peddler
3DS Code: 0318 8318 0000
Location: Arid Zone

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Bonesy » Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:02 am

fine i'm 1 let's just get this dumb game over with

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Linkman
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Linkman » Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:38 am

(Is this a massive breach of the rules? Can we claim player number?)
"everytime I try to draw xen I end up drawing a kangaroo smoking a cigar while chainsawing a tree" - Deoxy
"I can't believe I'm the only person who voted Stallone. His appeal lies in watching is movies again and again just to hear what the hell he's talking about." - Kilteh

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scraggypunk
Rank: legendary cartographer
Location: deoxy knight

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by scraggypunk » Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:06 am

i'm 8
wisdom
"the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread" - anatole france

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HPD
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by HPD » Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:20 am

Linkman wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:38 am
(Is this a massive breach of the rules? Can we claim player number?)
I didn't really have any rule against that. In retrospect it does seem that the MLad Ultimate No-Fun Winning Technique is for everyone to immediately claim player number right at the start of the game and lynch everyone who doesn't. The rest of the game then becomes a fairly trivial town win. So if we try to do it again, we really need to make a gentleman's agreement not to spill the beans on player number to keep things interesting.

That said, most of this game has been played on Discord. That is kind of unfortunate for those who weren't there, since they kind of were groping in the dark while the Discord group had more to go on. But even then it came more down to statistical analysis than actual role-play, which is kind of a big part of mafia games.

Also, the software I think sort of broke, since from the moment I had Linkman collapse, it went down to eight universes, of which I'm kinda dubious that three of those should still have existed. Right now, the game seems to hurl towards a possible paradox and I don't even know how it's going to resolve that.

Also, I checked my records, and it turns out that there indeed seems to be a possible Seer mishap for Sven. Either the software is not working as it should, or I gave Sven a wrong vision result on night one. Sadly I have no way to verify this now, but I'll try to see if I can dig it up after the game is definitely over. I'll also try to elaborate then about what happened after Linkman got lynched. Maybe I'll give a thought to making something myself...
"So when I say the fudge shaman flies he goddamn well flies and that's that." - Narts
"My motto is that there are far too many women in the world to waste time with men." - thefalman
"It's just that I'm not really aware of how a common conversation goes." - Imano Ob, talking on MSN about talking on MSN
"As for FE8, that was IS' variant of Man Spam - Dudes with Swords edition." - Xenesis

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Narts

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Narts » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:17 am

Yeah this game is pretty much all numbers and tables, no intrigue. Statistics fans may get something out of it but it's pretty boring compared to regular mafia imo

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HPD
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by HPD » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:31 am

You guys still want to lynch someone or do you want me to call it?
"So when I say the fudge shaman flies he goddamn well flies and that's that." - Narts
"My motto is that there are far too many women in the world to waste time with men." - thefalman
"It's just that I'm not really aware of how a common conversation goes." - Imano Ob, talking on MSN about talking on MSN
"As for FE8, that was IS' variant of Man Spam - Dudes with Swords edition." - Xenesis

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Narts

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Narts » Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:08 am

Let's at least play it to the end and see what happens

Lynch Scraggy

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Bonesy
Rank: Dog Peddler
3DS Code: 0318 8318 0000
Location: Arid Zone

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Bonesy » Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:20 am

Lynch Scraggy

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Terragent
Rank: Cussing Aussie
Location: Adelaide, Australia

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Terragent » Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:38 am

Lynch Scraggy

(sorry folks)

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Pkdragon
Rank: very chuuni

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Pkdragon » Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:03 am

Right now, the game seems to hurl towards a possible paradox and I don't even know how it's going to resolve that.
told you
HPD wrote:You know the only thing on the agenda of the Squirtle Squad is pure, unadulterated chaos.

That, and watching Euros squirm.

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scraggypunk
Rank: legendary cartographer
Location: deoxy knight

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by scraggypunk » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:13 am

not knowing whose team your on kind of saps the drama from the game, so yeah, lynch me, i might be mafia i guess.

this might be the ol sadbrain talkin but i find it hard to care
wisdom
"the law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread" - anatole france

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Linkman
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Linkman » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:03 am

Yeah, I echo the sentiment here.

The bigger problem was not even the randomizing: it was simply not knowing what faction I was a part of. I thought about the mass claiming strategy Day 1, but what if I turned out to be mafia in the end?

I had no agenda, therefore couldn't formulate a proper strategy. It devolved very quickly into not caring.
"everytime I try to draw xen I end up drawing a kangaroo smoking a cigar while chainsawing a tree" - Deoxy
"I can't believe I'm the only person who voted Stallone. His appeal lies in watching is movies again and again just to hear what the hell he's talking about." - Kilteh

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Sven

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by Sven » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:06 am

i uh

what

yeah something makes no sense here, i don't mind calling it

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HPD
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Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by HPD » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:03 pm

No time to make this prettier, unfortunately, maybe I'll have time later to clean it up.

Lynch chosen: scraggypunk lynched. (Collapsed into a Werewolf)

The villagers win!
Bonesy was -2
Sven was 1
Pkdragon was -9
Dragonite was -1
QQQQQQQ7777777 was -1
Terragent was -1
Narts was 1
scraggypunk was -10
Linkman was -1

So, apparently Scraggy was the alpha dog? That doesn't really make sense with Pk killing Dragonite then, but oh well.

ANYWAY, I wanted to return to the situation after Linkman's lynch, so end of day 2. At this point, there are eight universes left in play:

Image

These are the seer results for everyone:
Image

This is a log of the kill orders:
Image

Linky is lynched day 2, should cause Bonesy to lose possible mafia status (since he would've killed linky night 2, before lynch).
This causes universes 1, 2 and 3 to become impossible.
Night 3, terr, narts and scraggy all target bonesy. They are the only possible mafia left, so Bonesy is inevitably killed.
He has at this point a 60% chance of flipping civ, and 40% chance at flipping the seer.
His night 3 inspection is moot even if he does flip Seer, since, according to the ruleset, kills go before visions.
If Bonesy flips Seer, only universes 5 and 6 are still in play. Both of them have Terr as a dead civilian.
The game continues with Narts and Scraggy at 50% evil and Sven as a 100% civ. Sven gets to coinflip to decide the winner.
If Bonesy flips Civ, universes 4, 7 and 8 will still be in play. Nobody is definitively dead (Terr is 67% dead, Sven 33%).
Now Seer visions are resolved. The program flipped everyone as Not Evil, however we can see that everyone chose a vision
target that would invalidate the single possible universe in which they would be the Seer. The only possible results that
should happen is that everyone must see their target as Evil.
Sven already saw Narts as evil, though I'm not sure about this result. If it does, Sven can no longer be Seer (he couldn't even have been after night 2, most likely).
Universe 7 is then invalidated. Otherwise, all three universes should still be in play on day 4, with four people left (Bonesy of course died).
In this case, Scraggy has a 2/3 chance of being the last mafia and 1/3 chance of being the Seer. Sven, Terr and Narts can decide to lynch Scraggy, which would end up as a 67% shot at a town win (with Terr inevitably dying). If Scraggy does not flip mafia, or anyone else is lynched, the mafia win.

Like I said, I'll clean it up later and add the rest of the data, but I just wanted to share this with you guys right now.
"So when I say the fudge shaman flies he goddamn well flies and that's that." - Narts
"My motto is that there are far too many women in the world to waste time with men." - thefalman
"It's just that I'm not really aware of how a common conversation goes." - Imano Ob, talking on MSN about talking on MSN
"As for FE8, that was IS' variant of Man Spam - Dudes with Swords edition." - Xenesis

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Narts

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Town wins!

Post by Narts » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:32 pm

Linky is lynched day 2, should cause Bonesy to lose possible mafia status (since he would've killed linky night 2, before lynch).
This causes universes 1, 2 and 3 to become impossible.
So is lynching quantum ghosts supposed to be legal or not legal?

It may seem paradoxical, but so does quantum ghosts taking part in the voting, so which is it?

It seems to me the software simply doesn't consider it a paradox and we should take that as the normal way the rules work.

As for the alpha dog, I thought alpha status was inherited, so when the original alpha dog (pk) died scraggy became the alpha for the subsequent nights.

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QQQQQQQ7777777
Rank: Little Scuzzy Bumpkin

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Day 4

Post by QQQQQQQ7777777 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:41 pm

HPD wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:03 pm
Image
Narts wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:49 pm
Q is partially mafia, let's kill him

Lynch Q
Proof that Narts is evil (and smells)
BUY GOLD

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Narts

Re: Quantum dog mafia! Town wins!

Post by Narts » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:49 pm

Image

That statement was not wrong.

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